Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
market:
Yes 24¢ / No 76¢
· liquidity $61,223 · ends 2026-09-20
·
market page ↗Turns on whether 'seats held by United Russia' means immediate post-election results or seats the party controls after any post-election member defections.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
First sentence says 'held' (current composition), second says 'won' (election results). Official CEC source reports votes won, not current membership, but 'held' in common usage means currently occupies.
Disputed precedents with similar wording
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market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
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Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-united-russia-win-between-310-and-324-seats-in-the-next-russian-state-duma-election.json.
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