unrekt resolver / dossier

Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?

market: Yes 7¢ / No 93¢ · liquidity $1,900 · ends 2027-01-01 · market page ↗
Turns on interpretation of ISW map shading, which could be ambiguous or change methodology, since resolution depends entirely on third-party ISW map determinations.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, (48.299654° N, 37.265129° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Market resolution is entirely outsourced to ISW map; no fallback for ISW methodology changes or ambiguous shading; text is truncated at end.

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $25,624. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY No $469 @ 92¢ 2026-08-23 · 0xd27c714a… · wallet history: $2,318 redeemed / 4 resolutions
BUY No $460 @ 92¢ 2026-08-23 · 0xd5db0ca9… · wallet history: $1,478 redeemed / 2 resolutions
BUY No $460 @ 92¢ 2026-08-23 · 0xd18413e5… · wallet history: $886 redeemed / 2 resolutions
BUY No $455 @ 92¢ 2026-08-23 · 0x1882da70… · wallet history: $1,931 redeemed / 4 resolutions
BUY No $451 @ 92¢ 2026-08-23 · 0xfd5e239b… · wallet history: $867 redeemed / 2 resolutions
BUY No $446 @ 92¢ 2026-08-23 · 0x4553a383… · wallet history: $1,825 redeemed / 4 resolutions
BUY No $446 @ 92¢ 2026-08-23 · 0x83b042b0… · wallet history: $486 redeemed / 1 resolutions
BUY No $446 @ 90¢ 2026-07-29 · 0x59b506a1… · wallet history: $195 redeemed / 1 resolutions

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will the US not strike another country before 2027? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-ukraine-re-enter-myrnohrad-by-december-31.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

unrekt resolver — independent resolution intelligence for prediction markets. We analyse how markets will resolve (rules, wording, precedent), not what will happen. We hold no positions. Every published read is timestamped and graded by the market's actual resolution. all wording-risk markets