Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by September 30?
market:
Yes 9¢ / No 91¢
· liquidity $1,904 · ends 2026-09-30
·
market page ↗
Turns on whether the specific ISW map shading categories (e.g. 'Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains') must match exactly or whether reasonable evidence of Ukrainian territorial control suffices.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Hryshyne, Donetsk Oblast, (48.326812° N, 37.081701° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Rule depends on ISW map category labels that could change/be re-labeled. Concept of 'actual control' (for negotiated settlements) vs ISW shading is somewhat subjective.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $25,567. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$461 @ 91¢
2026-08-03 · 0xe00f903c… · wallet history: $1,644 redeemed / 4 resolutions
BUY No
$458 @ 91¢
2026-08-03 · 0xfd623072… · wallet history: $1,286 redeemed / 3 resolutions
BUY No
$452 @ 91¢
2026-08-03 · 0x9a5a744f… · wallet history: $495 redeemed / 2 resolutions
BUY No
$449 @ 92¢
2026-08-03 · 0x9f45460f… · wallet history: $752 redeemed / 3 resolutions
BUY No
$449 @ 91¢
2026-08-03 · 0x48ff3a83… · wallet history: $1,309 redeemed / 3 resolutions
BUY No
$446 @ 91¢
2026-08-03 · 0x782c3c06… · wallet history: $4,806 redeemed / 10 resolutions
BUY No
$446 @ 91¢
2026-08-03 · 0xced70f74… · wallet history: $1,290 redeemed / 3 resolutions
BUY No
$446 @ 91¢
2026-08-03 · 0x8284c5e6… · wallet history: $474 redeemed / 1 resolutions
Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-ukraine-re-enter-hryshyne-by-september-30.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.