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Will Uba Sani win the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election?

market: Yes 69¢ / No 31¢ · liquidity $7,628 · ends 2027-02-06 · market page ↗
Turns on whether Nigerian gubernatorial elections require the same geographic vote distribution as federal elections, which the rules invoke but do not define.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Kaduna State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.

Rules cite 'constitutionally required geographic distribution' but Nigeria's 2/3-state requirement applies only to *federal* elections. Unclear if state governors face equivalent constraints.

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY Yes $2,680 · BUY No $1,356. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY Yes $1,896 @ 61¢ 2026-08-26 · 0xb1ca909e… · wallet history: $34,954 redeemed / 38 resolutions
BUY No $1,356 @ 30¢ 2026-08-29 · 0x6139c42e… · wallet history: $1,257 redeemed / 4 resolutions
BUY Yes $784 @ 57¢ 2026-08-23 · 0x1f9e15f3… · wallet history: $55 redeemed / 4 resolutions

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-uba-sani-win-the-2027-kaduna-state-gubernatorial-election.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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