Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?
market:
Yes 50¢ / No 50¢
· liquidity $43,464 · ends 2026-12-31
·
market page ↗Turns on whether meeting at China's border, maritime boundary, or territorial waters counts as meeting 'in China.'
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules specify meeting location will determine outcome but don't define geographic boundaries for 'China' (land-only vs. waters/airspace).
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $5,544 · SELL No $1,975 · SELL Yes $1,336 · BUY Yes $1,060. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$1,824 @ 84¢
2026-06-06 · 0x1ee9a5fc… · wallet history: $2,429 redeemed / 18 resolutions SELL No
$1,422 @ 57¢
2026-08-22 · 0x801dbe41… · wallet history: $28,462 redeemed / 89 resolutions BUY No
$1,373 @ 86¢
2026-07-25 · 0x801dbe41… · wallet history: $28,462 redeemed / 89 resolutions BUY No
$1,079 @ 83¢
2026-08-06 · 0x6c104a31… · wallet history: $33,355 redeemed / 59 resolutions BUY Yes
$1,060 @ 32¢
2026-08-11 · 0x66c1a6fe… · wallet history: $13,539 redeemed / 70 resolutions BUY No
$830 @ 83¢
2026-08-06 · 0x801dbe41… · wallet history: $28,462 redeemed / 89 resolutions SELL Yes
$686 @ 30¢
2026-08-15 · 0x233bacfb… · wallet history: $1,563 redeemed / 20 resolutions SELL Yes
$650 @ 17¢
2026-08-06 · 0xeec50ede… · wallet history: $438 redeemed / 11 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-in-china-784.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.