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Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026?

market: Yes 100¢ / No 0¢ · liquidity $18,140 · ends 2026-09-01 · market page ↗
Turns on whether a Gemini Pro model accessible on Google's official website requires a formal public announcement or if explicit labeling on the official site alone suffices for a qualifying 'public release'.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Rules allow either 'clearly defined and publicly announced' OR 'otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled' on Google's website, then exclude 'placeholder text' — boundary between real release and placeholder is ambiguous.

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY Yes $4,304 · SELL Yes $1,902. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY Yes $930 @ 75¢ 2026-08-15 · 0xe9076a87… · wallet history: $18,954 redeemed / 65 resolutions
SELL Yes $819 @ 93¢ 2026-08-22 · 0x564f2274… · wallet history: $5,375 redeemed / 76 resolutions
BUY Yes $783 @ 46¢ 2026-08-10 · 0xb10047d6… · wallet history: $28,214 redeemed / 10 resolutions
BUY Yes $671 @ 89¢ 2026-08-19 · 0x80a4552c… · wallet history: $300 redeemed / 2 resolutions
BUY Yes $550 @ 85¢ 2026-08-16 · 0x4f71f873… · wallet history: $964 redeemed / 3 resolutions
SELL Yes $549 @ 92¢ 2026-08-20 · 0x5a218c7a… · wallet history: $2,462 redeemed / 16 resolutions
SELL Yes $534 @ 92¢ 2026-08-19 · 0x5a218c7a… · wallet history: $2,462 redeemed / 16 resolutions
BUY Yes $533 @ 92¢ 2026-08-20 · 0xd029b13f… · wallet history: $15,700 redeemed / 39 resolutions

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-there-be-no-next-google-gemini-pro-model-release-by-august-31-2026-20260729182045907.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

unrekt resolver — independent resolution intelligence for prediction markets. We analyse how markets will resolve (rules, wording, precedent), not what will happen. We hold no positions. Every published read is timestamped and graded by the market's actual resolution. all wording-risk markets