Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in September 2026?
market:
Yes 21¢ / No 79¢
· liquidity $30,315 · ends 2026-09-30
·
market page ↗Turns on how missile type is determined when DPRK's classification claim conflicts with independent expert assessment of the test.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during September 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Rule specifies which missile types qualify (ballistic, cruise, anti-ship) versus excluded (SAM, MLRS) but does not specify the arbitrator when DPRK's designation and expert assessment diverge
Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-there-be-fewer-than-1-north-korea-test-in-september-2026.json.
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