Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
market:
Yes 1¢ / No 99¢
· liquidity $2,495 · ends 2026-08-31
·
market page ↗Turns on whether earthquake aftershocks count as separate earthquakes in the total or are grouped with their mainshocks.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Rules delegate to USGS (which lists aftershocks as separate catalog entries), but the term 'earthquakes' is ambiguous between 'distinct seismic events' (mainshock + aftershocks = 1) and 'USGS catalog entries' (each listed separately). A mainshock with multiple 5.5+ aftershocks could swing the count materially.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $1,089 · SELL No $557. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$589 @ 92¢
2026-08-26 · 0xab691e92… · wallet history: $16,485 redeemed / 69 resolutions SELL No
$557 @ 67¢
2026-08-30 · 0xab691e92… · wallet history: $16,485 redeemed / 69 resolutions BUY No
$500 @ 99¢
2026-08-30 · 0x684c5cb6… · wallet history: $2,255 redeemed / 69 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
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Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-there-be-6-earthquakes-of-5pt5-or-above-magnitude-worldwide.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.