Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?
market:
Yes 1¢ / No 99¢
· liquidity $26,978 · ends 2026-12-09
·
market page ↗Turns on whether the market resolves based on the FOMC's actual announced upper bound rate or its value after rounding to the nearest 25 basis points.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Question asks 'will the upper bound be 1.25%' but rules apply rounding-to-nearest-25bp; if FOMC set 1.125%, it would round to 1.25% and resolve YES. FOMC virtually always uses 25bp increments, making this an edge-case trap rather than practical risk.
Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Iran leadership change by March 13?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-federal-funds-rate-be-1pt25-at-the-end-of-2026-681.json.
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