Will the Republican Party win the TX-05 House seat?
market:
Yes 94¢ / No 6¢
· liquidity $20,570 · ends 2026-11-03
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market page ↗Turns on whether a candidate's expressed intent to caucus is fixed as of election day, or can be updated after election day but before results are conclusively called.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ambiguous whether 'most recently expressed intent to caucus' is evaluated on Nov 3 or on the later date when results are officially called; a candidate could change public statements between these dates.
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-the-republican-party-win-the-tx-05-house-seat.json.
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