Will the Republican Party win the SC-07 House seat?
market:
Yes 95¢ / No 5¢
· liquidity $17,377 · ends 2026-11-03
·
market page ↗
Turns on whether an independent ballot-listed candidate can be classified under the party caucus-intent provision if no such intent has been expressed.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Party determined by ballot listing first, then by 'most recent expressed intent to caucus'—but rules don't address independent candidate with no prior caucus intent, creating classification gap.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY Yes $6,031 · SELL Yes $994. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY Yes
$2,102 @ 94¢
2026-08-26 · 0x6d57da09… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY Yes
$1,221 @ 91¢
2026-06-22 · 0x6d57da09… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY Yes
$1,161 @ 89¢
2026-03-06 · 0x120b3e2e… · wallet history: $98,816 redeemed / 74 resolutions
BUY Yes
$1,111 @ 93¢
2026-08-26 · 0x6d57da09… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
SELL Yes
$512 @ 92¢
2026-08-22 · 0x33c48c0e… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
SELL Yes
$482 @ 92¢
2026-07-31 · 0x270b3f55… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY Yes
$437 @ 92¢
2026-07-24 · 0x6d57da09… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
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Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-the-republican-party-win-the-sc-07-house-seat.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.