Will the Republican Party win the OH-14 House seat?
market:
Yes 94¢ / No 6¢
· liquidity $24,697 · ends 2026-11-03
·
market page ↗
Turns on whether an independent winner with no recent expressed caucusing intent is classified by their most-recent-ever statement or requires a fresh declaration.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Identical wording risk as NY-18 regarding independent candidates and caucusing intent definition.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY Yes $7,136 · SELL Yes $592. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY Yes
$3,405 @ 87¢
2026-07-12 · 0xc8b9a301… · wallet history: $90,831 redeemed / 22 resolutions
BUY Yes
$2,379 @ 92¢
2026-08-22 · 0x6d57da09… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY Yes
$677 @ 98¢
2026-07-12 · 0x2b135d1e… · wallet history: $1,684 redeemed / 5 resolutions
BUY Yes
$675 @ 90¢
2026-08-09 · 0x014c4e7a… · wallet history: $3,516 redeemed / 20 resolutions
SELL Yes
$592 @ 89¢
2026-07-18 · 0x2b135d1e… · wallet history: $1,684 redeemed / 5 resolutions
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-the-republican-party-win-the-oh-14-house-seat.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.