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Will the Republican Party win the IN-07 House seat?

market: Yes 1¢ / No 99¢ · liquidity $30,061 · ends 2026-11-03 · market page ↗
Turns on whether candidate party affiliation is fixed at the moment the race is first 'conclusively called' or at official FEC certification.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Identical wording risk to 1284017; party determination at undefined 'conclusively called' moment could differ from official certification.

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $10,123 · SELL No $736. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY No $4,796 @ 95¢ 2026-08-23 · 0xb1ca909e… · wallet history: $34,954 redeemed / 38 resolutions
BUY No $1,343 @ 95¢ 2026-08-15 · 0x6d57da09… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY No $958 @ 94¢ 2026-07-14 · 0x120b3e2e… · wallet history: $98,816 redeemed / 74 resolutions
BUY No $804 @ 96¢ 2026-08-23 · 0xeed8c2be… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 1 resolutions
SELL No $736 @ 92¢ 2026-07-08 · 0x33c48c0e… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY No $705 @ 94¢ 2026-05-31 · 0x6d57da09… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY No $514 @ 95¢ 2026-08-18 · 0x6d57da09… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY No $509 @ 93¢ 2026-05-29 · 0x6d57da09… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-the-republican-party-win-the-in-07-house-seat.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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