Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?
market:
Yes 1¢ / No 99¢
· liquidity $83,648 · ends 2026-12-31
·
market page ↗Turns on whether 'the lower or upper bound reaches 2.5%' means either bound independently can satisfy the condition, or only the lower bound matters.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Rules define FED rates as 'lower or upper bound' then say either can 'reach' 2.5%, but the question asks about 'lower bound' specifically; in practice, only the lower bound could realistically hit 2.5% in a normal range structure.
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-the-feds-lower-bound-reach-2pt5-or-lower-before-2027-289-849-151-768.json.
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