Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
market:
Yes 55¢ / No 45¢
· liquidity $24,146 · ends 2026-09-16
·
market page ↗
Turns on whether resolution to 'Other' (for combinations outside Pause–Pause–Pause) means 'No' or constitutes a separate third outcome in a yes/no market.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rules reference 'any listed' combinations without providing the list; 'Other' mentioned but its role in a binary question is undefined.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY Yes $76,751 · SELL Yes $21,951 · BUY No $11,083 · SELL No $6,189. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY Yes
$48,157 @ 64¢
2026-07-15 · 0xfbe66593… · wallet history: $338,608 redeemed / 2 resolutions
BUY No
$4,391 @ 69¢
2026-07-23 · 0xa1ffbb29… · wallet history: $80 redeemed / 28 resolutions
BUY Yes
$4,232 @ 54¢
2026-07-14 · 0xb0fcea24… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 1 resolutions
SELL Yes
$3,697 @ 67¢
2026-07-16 · 0xb0fcea24… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 1 resolutions
BUY Yes
$2,953 @ 68¢
2026-08-22 · 0xfbe66593… · wallet history: $338,608 redeemed / 2 resolutions
BUY Yes
$2,751 @ 62¢
2026-06-28 · 0xb0fcea24… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 1 resolutions
SELL Yes
$2,625 @ 67¢
2026-07-08 · 0xb0fcea24… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 1 resolutions
SELL Yes
$2,567 @ 65¢
2026-07-16 · 0xb0fcea24… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 1 resolutions
Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-the-fed-pausepausepause-in-the-next-three-decisions-junjulsep.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.