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Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

market: Yes 86¢ / No 14¢ · liquidity $76,866 · ends 2026-09-20 · market page ↗
Turns on how seats are counted if KPRF contests the election as part of a jointly-listed coalition, since the coalition resolution rules are cut off mid-sentence.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Text truncates at 'If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will c' — incompletely specified.

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY Yes $37,702 · BUY No $1,916 · SELL Yes $957. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY Yes $4,000 @ 85¢ 2026-08-03 · 0xf285f0cc… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 1 resolutions
BUY Yes $3,420 @ 84¢ 2026-08-16 · 0x99012d12… · wallet history: $17,129 redeemed / 37 resolutions
BUY Yes $3,037 @ 85¢ 2026-08-14 · 0x99012d12… · wallet history: $17,129 redeemed / 37 resolutions
BUY Yes $3,000 @ 83¢ 2026-07-29 · 0x99012d12… · wallet history: $17,129 redeemed / 37 resolutions
BUY Yes $2,610 @ 57¢ 2026-06-23 · 0x5c14eb6a… · wallet history: $140,679 redeemed / 18 resolutions
BUY Yes $2,300 @ 86¢ 2026-08-05 · 0xf285f0cc… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 1 resolutions
BUY Yes $2,090 @ 85¢ 2026-08-20 · 0x3d3cf99a… · wallet history: $34,334 redeemed / 30 resolutions
BUY Yes $1,981 @ 85¢ 2026-08-20 · 0x99012d12… · wallet history: $17,129 redeemed / 37 resolutions

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-the-communist-party-of-the-russian-federation-kprf-win-the-second-most-seats-in-the-next-russian-parliamentary-election.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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