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Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?

market: Yes 5¢ / No 95¢ · liquidity $33,272 · ends 2027-06-30 · market page ↗
Turns on what level or type of damage sustained during the catch attempt qualifies as 'catastrophic damage.'
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Starship upper stage for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower’s chopsticks, this market will resolve to “No.” A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the 14th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 14th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 14th launch, and this market will stay open until the 14th launch has occurred. If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

'Catastrophic' is subjective; rules do not define threshold between acceptable and unacceptable damage.

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $6,557. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY No $2,000 @ 77¢ 2026-08-20 · 0x1a8f140b… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY No $559 @ 86¢ 2026-08-20 · 0x562bc806… · wallet history: $34,268 redeemed / 145 resolutions
BUY No $554 @ 85¢ 2026-08-20 · 0x562bc806… · wallet history: $34,268 redeemed / 145 resolutions
BUY No $540 @ 56¢ 2026-08-04 · 0xcc033f89… · wallet history: $35,873 redeemed / 3 resolutions
BUY No $500 @ 80¢ 2026-08-20 · 0x1a8f140b… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY No $500 @ 85¢ 2026-08-18 · 0xa18effd5… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY No $500 @ 85¢ 2026-08-17 · 0x1a8f140b… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY No $500 @ 86¢ 2026-08-20 · 0x1a8f140b… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will the US not strike another country before 2027? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-the-chopsticks-catch-spacex-starship-flight-test-14-starship-563.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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