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Will the Bank of Korea hike by 50 bps or more at the August 2026 meeting?

market: Yes 0¢ / No 100¢ · liquidity $47,189 · ends 2026-08-26 · market page ↗
Turns on how the truncated rounding rule applies when the Bank of Korea announces a non-standard rate change at the meeting boundary.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.

The rounding guidelines are incomplete (text cuts off mid-sentence); edge-case rate changes may not fit the partial definition provided.

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $60,770. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY No $57,507 @ 100¢ 2026-08-27 · 0x4ad6cade… · wallet history: $592,810 redeemed / 49 resolutions
BUY No $700 @ 100¢ 2026-08-27 · 0xdfb8ec66… · wallet history: $25,510 redeemed / 95 resolutions
BUY No $695 @ 100¢ 2026-08-27 · 0xfde17cff… · wallet history: $72,677 redeemed / 38 resolutions
BUY No $634 @ 100¢ 2026-08-20 · 0xfd557e6d… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY No $634 @ 100¢ 2026-08-27 · 0x28bf066c… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY No $600 @ 100¢ 2026-08-27 · 0x6086b18f… · wallet history: $23,196 redeemed / 233 resolutions

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-the-bank-of-korea-hike-by-50-bps-or-more-at-the-august-2026-meeting.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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