Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?
market:
Yes 91¢ / No 9¢
· liquidity $22,645 · ends 2026-10-11
·
market page ↗Turns on whether a party must explicitly announce non-participation, or whether running an independent selection process counts as 'officially announcing' non-participation.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rule names 'official announcement' and 'participation' but doesn't define them. Ambiguity whether 3-party threshold is met hinges on whether actions (e.g., separate primary) suffice as announcements or only explicit statements count.
Disputed precedents with similar wording
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market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
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Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-the-2026-united-left-primary-for-the-2027-french-presidential-election-be-canceled-596-546.json.
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