Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
market:
Yes 96¢ / No 4¢
· liquidity $75,825 · ends 2026-12-31
·
market page ↗Turns on whether elections rescheduled to a different date in 2026 satisfy 'as scheduled on November 3, 2026.'
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rule specifies exact date; postponement to Nov 10 would fail even if midterms technically occurred.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY Yes $77,028 · SELL Yes $17,952 · BUY No $1,140 · SELL No $925. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY Yes
$19,861 @ 93¢
2026-06-07 · 0xed107a85… · wallet history: $40,388 redeemed / 8 resolutions BUY Yes
$8,315 @ 95¢
2026-08-12 · 0xed107a85… · wallet history: $40,388 redeemed / 8 resolutions BUY Yes
$7,228 @ 92¢
2026-06-07 · 0xed107a85… · wallet history: $40,388 redeemed / 8 resolutions BUY Yes
$4,550 @ 91¢
2026-04-16 · 0xd3e57cd3… · wallet history: $4,203 redeemed / 22 resolutions SELL Yes
$4,467 @ 89¢
2026-04-17 · 0xd3e57cd3… · wallet history: $4,203 redeemed / 22 resolutions BUY Yes
$2,914 @ 96¢
2026-08-02 · 0xed107a85… · wallet history: $40,388 redeemed / 8 resolutions SELL Yes
$2,821 @ 90¢
2026-05-10 · 0xe7499538… · wallet history: $337,989 redeemed / 39 resolutions BUY Yes
$2,237 @ 96¢
2026-08-17 · 0xed107a85… · wallet history: $40,388 redeemed / 8 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-the-2026-midterm-elections-happen-as-scheduled.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.