Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?
market:
Yes 4¢ / No 96¢
· liquidity $6,761 · ends 2027-01-01
·
market page ↗Turns on whether a minimal or fully refundable preorder deposit qualifies as sufficient 'payment' for the 'paid preorder/deposit' requirement.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
Rules require payment to exclude interest-registration pages but don't specify minimum payment amount or refund status. If Tesla opens preorders (e.g., $1 refundable deposit) by Dec 31, 2026 without guaranteed delivery by that date, ambiguity over whether this constitutes a 'release.'
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $4,227 · SELL No $568. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$3,727 @ 93¢
2026-08-24 · 0x5f211a24… · wallet history: $8,269 redeemed / 374 resolutions SELL No
$568 @ 98¢
2026-08-24 · 0x8c2aee57… · wallet history: $911 redeemed / 9 resolutions BUY No
$500 @ 86¢
2026-08-12 · 0x8c2aee57… · wallet history: $911 redeemed / 9 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-tesla-release-optimus-by-december-31-2026.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.