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Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

market: Yes 2¢ / No 98¢ · liquidity $86,599 · ends 2026-10-10 · market page ↗
Turns on whether Tamim being a co-recipient of a joint Nobel Peace Prize counts as 'winning' under the market's tiebreaker rules.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Question asks if he 'wins' but rules force single winner from joint recipients via precedence; co-recipients may not resolve to YES

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: SELL No $21,616 · BUY No $21,136 · BUY Yes $8,597 · SELL Yes $871. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY Yes $4,336 @ 58¢ 2026-07-16 · 0x000c8cb9… · wallet history: $238,113 redeemed / 86 resolutions
BUY Yes $3,756 @ 63¢ 2026-07-16 · 0x000c8cb9… · wallet history: $238,113 redeemed / 86 resolutions
BUY No $1,934 @ 97¢ 2026-04-28 · 0xd6b6f692… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 1 resolutions
SELL No $1,699 @ 93¢ 2026-03-06 · 0x6a73636f… · wallet history: $886 redeemed / 19 resolutions
SELL No $1,680 @ 93¢ 2026-03-06 · 0x6e33da0a… · wallet history: $343 redeemed / 16 resolutions
BUY No $1,615 @ 93¢ 2026-03-06 · 0xdcf8bea1… · wallet history: $464 redeemed / 18 resolutions
SELL No $1,615 @ 93¢ 2026-03-06 · 0xdcf8bea1… · wallet history: $464 redeemed / 18 resolutions
SELL No $1,593 @ 93¢ 2026-03-06 · 0x76a35038… · wallet history: $607 redeemed / 18 resolutions

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will the US not strike another country before 2027? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-tamim-bin-hamad-al-thani-win-the-nobel-peace-prize-in-2026-755.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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