unrekt resolver / dossier

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?

market: Yes 18¢ / No 82¢ · liquidity $3,431 · ends 2026-09-16 · market page ↗
Turns on whether a meeting counts if one government disputes that the representatives held proper authorization, or if one-sided public acknowledgment suffices.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Rules require representatives 'authorized to engage in negotiation on behalf of their governments,' but authorization proof/verification is undefined; 'publicly acknowledged by either government' allows unilateral acknowledgment, creating potential conflict with authorization requirement

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $1,843 · BUY Yes $1,559. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY Yes $1,559 @ 28¢ 2026-08-30 · 0x40cfb294… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY No $740 @ 74¢ 2026-08-29 · 0xfc55935e… · wallet history: $129 redeemed / 6 resolutions
BUY No $696 @ 80¢ 2026-08-27 · 0xb36cfbf8… · wallet history: $7,739 redeemed / 4 resolutions
BUY No $407 @ 74¢ 2026-08-29 · 0xfc55935e… · wallet history: $129 redeemed / 6 resolutions

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Will the US not strike another country before 2027? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2026-12-31

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-russia-and-ukraine-hold-any-diplomatic-meeting-by-september-15-2026.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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