Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
market:
Yes 0¢ / No 100¢
· liquidity $81,495 · ends 2026-08-11
·
market page ↗Turns on whether a party-designated nominee (if no primary vote occurs by Nov 2) qualifies as 'official Republican nominee' under the fallback clause.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff.
If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election.
If the results of the special primary are not definitively known, or if there is no Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If primary doesn't happen, market pivots to 'official nominee to contest Nov 3 election'—ambiguous what process appoints that nominee.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $42,565 · SELL No $12,014 · BUY Yes $2,593 · SELL Yes $1,075. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$6,438 @ 53¢
2026-07-16 · 0x1c144e30… · wallet history: $45,964 redeemed / 84 resolutions BUY No
$4,250 @ 85¢
2026-08-11 · 0x011f2d37… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions BUY No
$2,478 @ 89¢
2026-08-11 · 0xeface990… · wallet history: $546 redeemed / 19 resolutions SELL No
$2,027 @ 100¢
2026-08-17 · 0x9cdda449… · wallet history: $4,700 redeemed / 46 resolutions SELL No
$1,991 @ 100¢
2026-08-23 · 0x122cb94c… · wallet history: $2,225 redeemed / 15 resolutions BUY No
$1,770 @ 89¢
2026-08-11 · 0x7e5972bf… · wallet history: $64,139 redeemed / 134 resolutions BUY No
$1,770 @ 89¢
2026-08-11 · 0x7e5972bf… · wallet history: $64,139 redeemed / 134 resolutions SELL No
$1,623 @ 86¢
2026-07-19 · 0x1c144e30… · wallet history: $45,964 redeemed / 84 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
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market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
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Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-russell-fry-be-the-new-republican-nominee-for-senate-in-south-carolina-20260712140628831.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.