Will Rafael Leao stay at AC Milan?
market:
Yes 0¢ / No 100¢
· liquidity $7,588 · ends 2026-09-02
·
market page ↗Turns on whether 'official transfer announcement' alone resolves the market or whether the transfer must be fully completed/effective.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to the next team Rafael Leao officially joins by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If Rafael Leao does not officially join a new team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "AC Milan".
If Rafael Leao joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other".
If Rafael Leao is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
An official transfer announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from AC Milan and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Rule states both 'officially joins' (completion language) and 'official transfer announcement' (announcement alone) as resolution triggers; in soccer, announced transfers frequently fall through before completion.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $2,115. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$952 @ 87¢
2026-08-01 · 0x7e3321b6… · wallet history: $11,068 redeemed / 11 resolutions BUY No
$640 @ 69¢
2026-08-17 · 0xb9c1ea9b… · wallet history: $156 redeemed / 24 resolutions BUY No
$523 @ 86¢
2026-08-02 · 0x7e3321b6… · wallet history: $11,068 redeemed / 11 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
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market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
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Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-rafael-leao-stay-at-ac-milan-20260612222816437.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.