Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
market:
Yes 2¢ / No 98¢
· liquidity $19,027 · ends 2027-01-01
·
market page ↗Turns on whether 'enters into an agreement by Dec 31, 2026' means legal execution date or public announcement date.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.
An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules conflate 'enters into an agreement' (signing/execution) with 'announced agreement' (disclosure)—ambiguous if signature and announcement occur in different years, or if deal is signed confidentially before announcement.
Rules arguments from the market's own traders
Substantive resolution-rules commentary from the market's comment section, joined to each
commenter's on-chain position (skin in the game) at collection time. Position ≠ correctness — read the
arguments, weigh the incentives.
Gorilla. no position 2026-04-03
TikTok YES is already priced in after the Oracle-Silver Lake-MGX joint venture closed in January, so no edge there. The asymmetry is in Intel NO at current prices since Qualcomm backed off citing the 50 billion debt burden and Broadcom CEO publicly said no one even asked them. Meanwhile Nvidia went the partnership route with a 5 billion stock purchase instead of acquisition. All roads point to Intel staying independent through 2026.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: SELL No $96,806 · BUY No $9,214 · SELL Yes $2,388. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
SELL No
$5,184 @ 86¢
2026-02-01 · 0xe03ca44d… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions SELL No
$2,661 @ 89¢
2026-02-02 · 0x04668a59… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions SELL No
$2,661 @ 89¢
2026-02-02 · 0xa8385219… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions SELL No
$2,661 @ 89¢
2026-02-02 · 0xf41df258… · wallet history: $171 redeemed / 1 resolutions SELL No
$2,661 @ 89¢
2026-02-02 · 0xb6162b9c… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions SELL No
$2,661 @ 89¢
2026-02-02 · 0xc4b25fb0… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions SELL No
$2,661 @ 89¢
2026-02-02 · 0x3283b5e4… · wallet history: $121 redeemed / 1 resolutions SELL No
$2,658 @ 89¢
2026-02-02 · 0xe7dc3354… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-openai-be-acquired-before-2027-859.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.