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Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?

market: Yes 70¢ / No 30¢ · liquidity $38,156 · ends 2028-01-01 · market page ↗
Turns on whether an OpenAI announcement crediting their models' role in external researchers' solution counts as OpenAI 'announcing they solved' the problem or 'only congratulating' outside researchers.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of OpenAI, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used OpenAI's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The rule tries to exclude announcements that 'only' credit/congratulate outsiders, but the boundary between 'our models contributed' and 'only congratulating' is fuzzy. An external researcher using OpenAI's tools solving a problem, with OpenAI highlighting their tools' role, could plausibly fall either way.

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will the US not strike another country before 2027? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Iran leadership change by March 13? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-openai-announce-another-millennium-prize-solution-by-december-31-2027.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

unrekt resolver — independent resolution intelligence for prediction markets. We analyse how markets will resolve (rules, wording, precedent), not what will happen. We hold no positions. Every published read is timestamped and graded by the market's actual resolution. all wording-risk markets