Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
market:
Yes 34¢ / No 66¢
· liquidity $71,569 · ends 2027-01-01
·
market page ↗Turns on whether transitioning from a listed office to a caretaker or interim version of that role counts as ceasing to occupy the office.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules say caretaker/interim roles mean 'will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office,' but the boundary between leaving the office vs. continuing in a caretaker variant creates ambiguity for edge cases.
Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-no-listed-leader-be-out-before-2027-20260630194627385.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.