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Will Nick Stewart attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

market: Yes 21¢ / No 79¢ · liquidity $3,776 · ends 2026-12-31 · market page ↗
Turns on whether specific diplomatic meetings qualify as 'senior-level formal' talks given imprecise definitional language and truncated rules.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Rules cut off mid-sentence; subjective terms like 'senior-level' and 'materially direct' lack precise boundaries; technical talks exclusion scope unclear

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $938. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY No $469 @ 80¢ 2026-08-17 · 0xf5563340… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY No $469 @ 80¢ 2026-08-17 · 0xab532499… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will the US not strike another country before 2027? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Iran leadership change by March 13? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-nick-stewart-attend-a-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-december-31-2026-20260812154221280.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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