Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
market:
Yes 1¢ / No 99¢
· liquidity $38,370 · ends 2026-12-31
·
market page ↗Turns on whether 'another resolution source' (if Chatbot Arena permanently fails) must maintain similar ranking methodology/model coverage or if any alternative AI model ranking suffices.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Primary rules are precise, but fallback to 'another resolution source' is undefined; different leaderboards could rank models differently, creating dispute risk if primary becomes unavailable.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $499. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$499 @ 100¢
2026-07-03 · 0x03805a13… · wallet history: $453 redeemed / 9 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
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Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale?
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Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale?
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DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-moonshot-have-the-best-ai-model-at-the-end-of-december-2026.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.