Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?
market:
Yes 5¢ / No 95¢
· liquidity $33,249 · ends 2027-01-01
·
market page ↗Turns on whether an announced resignation that is later cancelled or withdrawn counts as ceasing to be leader under the rules.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules state announcement alone resolves to Yes 'regardless of when the announced resignation goes into effect,' but do not address whether withdrawal of an announced resignation still counts.
Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Iran leadership change by March 13?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-mohammed-bin-salman-cease-to-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-saudi-arabia-by-december-31-2026.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.