Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
market:
Yes 0¢ / No 100¢
· liquidity $29,761 · ends 2026-11-03
·
market page ↗Turns on whether official certification qualifies as 'confirmed results' by July 31, 2027, or whether all three sources must explicitly call the same candidate.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Rules list three sources as 'resolution source' but then permit fallback to official certification if sources don't unanimously agree. The timeout clause's definition of 'confirmed' is ambiguous.
Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
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resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-mary-peltola-win-the-2026-alaska-governor-election.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.