Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?
market:
Yes 0¢ / No 100¢
· liquidity $18,721 · ends 2026-08-18
·
market page ↗Turns on whether a recount extending past the November 30 deadline overrides the resolution-to-lowest-bracket rule, and how 'valid votes' denominator is determined if disputed.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Rules state market resolves to lowest bracket if not known by Nov 30, but also state market remains open if recount is initiated before official certification—potential conflict if recount extends past deadline.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $39,929 · BUY Yes $28,375 · SELL No $11,725 · SELL Yes $6,659. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$11,671 @ 99¢
2026-08-19 · 0x6eb50d7b… · wallet history: $458,070 redeemed / 41 resolutions BUY No
$5,612 @ 99¢
2026-08-19 · 0xb6a86aa3… · wallet history: $30,425 redeemed / 11 resolutions BUY Yes
$5,521 @ 49¢
2026-08-17 · 0x1c144e30… · wallet history: $45,964 redeemed / 84 resolutions SELL No
$3,721 @ 99¢
2026-08-19 · 0xb2ef9140… · wallet history: $10,761 redeemed / 17 resolutions BUY No
$3,418 @ 99¢
2026-08-19 · 0x098071d0… · wallet history: $61,648 redeemed / 63 resolutions BUY Yes
$3,372 @ 48¢
2026-08-18 · 0x7bc14171… · wallet history: $342,480 redeemed / 16 resolutions BUY Yes
$3,359 @ 55¢
2026-08-18 · 0x7131cb61… · wallet history: $182,643 redeemed / 13 resolutions BUY Yes
$3,121 @ 37¢
2026-08-16 · 0x2b9dbf4b… · wallet history: $93,741 redeemed / 31 resolutions Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-james-fishback-win-less-than-10-of-votes-in-the-florida-republican-governor-primary-20260701154239340.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.