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Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31

market: Yes 12¢ / No 88¢ · liquidity $33,914 · ends 2027-01-01 · market page ↗
Turns on whether an announcement of withdrawal suffices for YES even if Israel retains territorial control or forces subsequently re-enter.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

Phrase 'regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue' contradicts 'all ground forces have withdrawn' and creates ambiguity about what constitutes withdrawal

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will the US not strike another country before 2027? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Iran leadership change by March 13? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-israeli-forces-withdraw-from-beyond-the-litani-river-by-december-31.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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