Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
market:
Yes 43¢ / No 57¢
· liquidity $2,935 · ends 2026-06-30
·
market page ↗Turns on whether a product must be explicitly named 'GPT-6' or whether any model recognized as successor to GPT-5 counts.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Naming requirement allows ChatGPT-6o variants but excludes GPT-5.5; 'recognized as successor' and 'similar to progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4' are undefined.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY Yes $27,693 · SELL Yes $12,632 · BUY No $11,306 · SELL No $7,314. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
SELL No
$2,720 @ 68¢
2026-08-15 · 0x876bb030… · wallet history: $2,853 redeemed / 32 resolutions BUY Yes
$2,386 @ 64¢
2026-08-04 · 0xed71335e… · wallet history: $14,783 redeemed / 44 resolutions BUY Yes
$2,369 @ 83¢
2026-08-06 · 0xb90588ce… · wallet history: $14,212 redeemed / 171 resolutions SELL No
$2,195 @ 68¢
2026-08-16 · 0x876bb030… · wallet history: $2,853 redeemed / 32 resolutions BUY No
$2,180 @ 29¢
2026-07-22 · 0xe4de861d… · wallet history: $11,558 redeemed / 4 resolutions BUY Yes
$2,044 @ 73¢
2026-07-15 · 0x08e7bb81… · wallet history: $21,254 redeemed / 10 resolutions BUY Yes
$2,000 @ 75¢
2026-07-26 · 0x02981ea7… · wallet history: $7,797 redeemed / 3 resolutions BUY Yes
$1,892 @ 75¢
2026-07-27 · 0xed71335e… · wallet history: $14,783 redeemed / 44 resolutions Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-gpt-6-be-released-by-september-30-2026-543-325-933-952-413.json.
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