Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?
market:
Yes 32¢ / No 68¢
· liquidity $3,800 · ends 2026-09-16
·
market page ↗Turns on whether 'open beta or open rolling waitlist access' sufficiently satisfies 'made available to the general public' if constrained capacity limits practical access.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules clarify beta/waitlist counts but don't address practical constraints—whether a limited-capacity waitlist or beta with restricted signup (e.g., by country, rate limits, waiting period) still qualifies is undefined.
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-gpt-6-be-released-by-september-15-2026.json.
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