unrekt resolver / dossier

Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026?

market: Yes 90¢ / No 10¢ · liquidity $11,883 · ends 2026-11-01 · market page ↗
Turns on whether public access via restricted waitlist, limited capacity, or gradual rollout counts as 'publicly accessible' under the rules.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Distinction between 'open' and 'closed' access clear in principle but edge cases exist (limited-capacity signup, regional restrictions)

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-gpt-6-be-released-by-october-31-2026.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

unrekt resolver — independent resolution intelligence for prediction markets. We analyse how markets will resolve (rules, wording, precedent), not what will happen. We hold no positions. Every published read is timestamped and graded by the market's actual resolution. all wording-risk markets