Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?
market:
Yes 1¢ / No 99¢
· liquidity $8,884 · ends 2026-08-31
·
market page ↗Turns on whether 'open rolling waitlist' counts as genuinely 'made available to the general public' or if immediate access is required.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules distinguish open beta/rolling waitlist (Yes) from closed beta (No), but 'publicly accessible' can be ambiguous: a waitlist with infinite queue time or restrictive signup technically qualifies but may not reflect actual public availability.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $29,268 · SELL No $8,986 · BUY Yes $3,868 · SELL Yes $3,365. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$2,879 @ 98¢
2026-08-19 · 0x4d1bcbae… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions BUY No
$2,820 @ 94¢
2026-08-18 · 0x3eae5798… · wallet history: $157,793 redeemed / 27 resolutions BUY No
$2,242 @ 58¢
2026-07-14 · 0xb10047d6… · wallet history: $28,214 redeemed / 10 resolutions BUY No
$1,860 @ 93¢
2026-08-18 · 0x3eae5798… · wallet history: $157,793 redeemed / 27 resolutions BUY No
$1,617 @ 94¢
2026-08-18 · 0x6e664f19… · wallet history: $1,572 redeemed / 4 resolutions BUY No
$1,379 @ 63¢
2026-08-06 · 0x876bb030… · wallet history: $2,853 redeemed / 32 resolutions SELL No
$1,306 @ 48¢
2026-08-06 · 0x10e075ba… · wallet history: $2,385 redeemed / 19 resolutions SELL Yes
$1,292 @ 27¢
2026-08-07 · 0x2b670a31… · wallet history: $500 redeemed / 1 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Over $2M committed to the Infinex public sale?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-gpt-6-be-released-by-august-31-2026-778.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.