Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

market: Yes 0¢ / No 100¢ · liquidity $30,339 · ends 2026-06-01 · market page ↗

Turns on whether an interim or caretaker appointment that later becomes permanent counts as becoming the 'next Prime Minister.'

no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Rules exclude interim/caretaker PMs but ambiguous if someone transitions from interim to permanent status mid-term.

Rules arguments from the market's own traders

Substantive resolution-rules commentary from the market's comment section, joined to each commenter's on-chain position (skin in the game) at collection time. Position ≠ correctness — read the arguments, weigh the incentives.

true-edge no position 2026-07-29

quiet thread today, still watching how this resolves

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $610,505. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY No $5,148 @ 100¢ 2026-08-19 · 0xdcc4ee2c… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions

BUY No $5,137 @ 100¢ 2026-08-19 · 0x89142d53… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions

BUY No $5,133 @ 100¢ 2026-08-19 · 0xa33cb709… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2026-12-31

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-belete-molla-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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