Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?
market:
Yes 1¢ / No 99¢
· liquidity $21,869 · ends 2026-10-01
·
market page ↗Turns on whether a token counts as 'actively and publicly transferable and tradable' based solely on exchange listing or requires minimum volume, liquidity, or major-exchange presence.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rule excludes 'announcements alone' but doesn't define trading thresholds or which venues qualify.
Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-arc-launch-a-token-by-september-30-2026.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.