unrekt resolver / dossier

Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?

market: Yes 99¢ / No 1¢ · liquidity $14,308 · ends 2027-01-01 · market page ↗
Turns on whether a non-numbered iPhone released under a different name would be deemed sufficiently clear as a successor to qualify.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fallback criterion allows unnamed iPhone products to qualify if they 'retain original functions and expand... in such a way that it is clear'; 'clear' is subjective and could admit products Apple markets as adjacent (e.g. foldable iPhone) but market resolver might reject.

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-apple-release-iphone-18-in-2026.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

unrekt resolver — independent resolution intelligence for prediction markets. We analyse how markets will resolve (rules, wording, precedent), not what will happen. We hold no positions. Every published read is timestamped and graded by the market's actual resolution. all wording-risk markets