Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 10?
market:
Yes 1¢ / No 99¢
· liquidity $14,246 · ends 2026-09-10
·
market page ↗Turns on whether 'available for purchase' includes pre-orders/rolling availability and how unbranded foldable devices are confirmed as 'foldable iPhones.'
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Vague threshold for 'availability' and risk of identifying unnamed products as intended iPhone variant.
Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Over $2M committed to the Infinex public sale?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale?
resolved YES
DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-apple-release-a-foldable-iphone-by-september-10.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.