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Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?

market: Yes 12¢ / No 88¢ · liquidity $23,195 · ends 2026-10-01 · market page ↗
Turns on whether an announcement crediting outside researchers while foregrounding Anthropic's technical contribution (models, compute) counts as 'the work of Anthropic' or 'only credits or congratulates outside researchers.'
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems by 11:59 PM ET of the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of Anthropic, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used Anthropic's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Boundary between 'presenting as Anthropic's work (alone or jointly)' and 'only crediting outside researchers' is subjective. An announcement like 'our models enabled researchers to solve P vs NP' could fall either way.

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $3,652 · SELL No $1,148. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY No $830 @ 83¢ 2026-09-11 · 0x88b6e670… · wallet history: $1,320 redeemed / 6 resolutions
BUY No $817 @ 88¢ 2026-09-10 · 0x834191a4… · wallet history: $8,845 redeemed / 20 resolutions
BUY No $748 @ 90¢ 2026-09-10 · 0xfb1b4e2d… · wallet history: $92,339 redeemed / 47 resolutions
BUY No $667 @ 82¢ 2026-09-11 · 0x88b6e670… · wallet history: $1,320 redeemed / 6 resolutions
SELL No $648 @ 87¢ 2026-09-11 · 0xe57fa0a1… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions
BUY No $591 @ 88¢ 2026-09-10 · 0xa58d4f27… · wallet history: $391 redeemed / 4 resolutions
SELL No $500 @ 87¢ 2026-09-10 · 0x834191a4… · wallet history: $8,845 redeemed / 20 resolutions

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will the US not strike another country before 2027? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Iran leadership change by March 13? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2026-12-31

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-anthropic-announce-a-millennium-prize-solution-by-september-30-2026.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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