Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
market:
Yes 7¢ / No 93¢
· liquidity $80,498 · ends 2026-12-31
·
market page ↗Turns on whether a referendum establishing only 'desire for independence' without implementing actual independence counts as 'passed'.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Three categories ('desire', 'framework', 'independence') listed with unclear distinctions; ambiguous what each type of referendum satisfies
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $43,976 · SELL No $15,290 · BUY Yes $13,613. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
SELL No
$7,294 @ 85¢
2026-06-18 · 0xe0dbdb7f… · wallet history: $78,471 redeemed / 30 resolutions BUY No
$5,679 @ 87¢
2026-06-22 · 0x8b3689e5… · wallet history: $48,179 redeemed / 13 resolutions BUY No
$3,376 @ 87¢
2026-06-05 · 0xbacd00c9… · wallet history: $39,441 redeemed / 8 resolutions BUY Yes
$2,737 @ 17¢
2026-05-22 · 0x2b76c1d1… · wallet history: $39,146 redeemed / 8 resolutions BUY No
$2,732 @ 90¢
2026-07-25 · 0x40cfb294… · wallet history: $0 redeemed / 0 resolutions BUY No
$2,400 @ 90¢
2026-03-04 · 0xe2f7b43c… · wallet history: $26,808 redeemed / 21 resolutions SELL No
$1,863 @ 85¢
2026-07-04 · 0xbd8a9c8b… · wallet history: $11,484 redeemed / 51 resolutions BUY No
$1,836 @ 92¢
2026-08-24 · 0xb1ca909e… · wallet history: $34,954 redeemed / 38 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-alberta-vote-for-independence-in-2026.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.