Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
market:
Yes 16¢ / No 84¢
· liquidity $45,214 · ends 2026-12-31
·
market page ↗Turns on whether an agreement without explicit 'Abraham Accords' labeling counts as 'clearly attributed to the Accords' under the 'continuation' clause.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
'Clearly attributed' and 'continuation' are undefined; 'consensus reporting' adds subjectivity to resolution sourcing.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $20,457 · SELL No $8,716 · BUY Yes $4,116 · SELL Yes $2,366. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$2,591 @ 50¢
2026-06-30 · 0x88e2b1b6… · wallet history: $21,433 redeemed / 2 resolutions BUY No
$2,354 @ 66¢
2026-07-23 · 0x88e2b1b6… · wallet history: $21,433 redeemed / 2 resolutions BUY No
$1,970 @ 73¢
2026-08-07 · 0xb4f2592e… · wallet history: $151,596 redeemed / 49 resolutions SELL No
$1,545 @ 71¢
2026-07-21 · 0x40a67cff… · wallet history: $54,936 redeemed / 16 resolutions BUY No
$1,200 @ 60¢
2026-07-27 · 0x0a26054f… · wallet history: $98,630 redeemed / 47 resolutions BUY No
$1,058 @ 41¢
2026-03-12 · 0xf085b86a… · wallet history: $8,070 redeemed / 61 resolutions SELL No
$1,052 @ 61¢
2026-08-22 · 0x0a26054f… · wallet history: $98,630 redeemed / 47 resolutions SELL No
$1,002 @ 74¢
2026-07-04 · 0x9f66aa95… · wallet history: $8,540 redeemed / 50 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
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Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-a-new-country-join-the-abraham-accords-before-2027.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.