Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 31-September 6?
market:
Yes 9¢ / No 91¢
· liquidity $14,472 · ends 2026-09-06
·
market page ↗
Turns on whether 'transit calls' includes only the specified commercial vessel types or all ship arrivals reported by IMF PortWatch.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
'Transit calls include [5 types]' could be exhaustive definition or example list; IMF PortWatch may report non-specified vessels (military, fishing) requiring interpretation.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $4,271. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$4,271 @ 97¢
2026-08-29 · 0x09943221… · wallet history: $32 redeemed / 4 resolutions
Disputed precedents with similar wording
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market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
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Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/will-210-229-ships-transit-the-bab-el-mandeb-strait-between-august-31-september-6.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.