unrekt resolver / dossier

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

market: Yes 86¢ / No 14¢ · liquidity $75,714 · ends 2026-12-31 · market page ↗
Turns on whether 'overwhelming consensus of credible reporting' of a mutual agreement suffices without official co-announcement, given undefined thresholds for what counts as overwhelming and which sources qualify.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced. Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Rules allow resolution via credible reporting alone, but key terms lack precision for borderline cases where journalistic consensus exists without explicit bilateral announcement.

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY Yes $24,655 · SELL Yes $2,119 · BUY No $546. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY Yes $559 @ 91¢ 2026-07-30 · 0xd7b5e642… · wallet history: $3,346 redeemed / 12 resolutions
BUY No $546 @ 13¢ 2026-08-24 · 0xb4f2592e… · wallet history: $151,596 redeemed / 49 resolutions
SELL Yes $546 @ 91¢ 2026-07-30 · 0x2e262ba5… · wallet history: $2,783 redeemed / 9 resolutions
BUY Yes $546 @ 91¢ 2026-07-30 · 0x2e262ba5… · wallet history: $2,783 redeemed / 9 resolutions
SELL Yes $539 @ 91¢ 2026-07-30 · 0x82ffd6e4… · wallet history: $2,703 redeemed / 9 resolutions
BUY Yes $539 @ 91¢ 2026-07-30 · 0x82ffd6e4… · wallet history: $2,703 redeemed / 9 resolutions
BUY Yes $531 @ 91¢ 2026-07-30 · 0x84232b3d… · wallet history: $3,341 redeemed / 10 resolutions
SELL Yes $531 @ 91¢ 2026-07-30 · 0x84232b3d… · wallet history: $3,341 redeemed / 10 resolutions

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/us-x-china-tariff-agreement-by-december-31.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

unrekt resolver — independent resolution intelligence for prediction markets. We analyse how markets will resolve (rules, wording, precedent), not what will happen. We hold no positions. Every published read is timestamped and graded by the market's actual resolution. all wording-risk markets