unrekt resolver / dossier

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?

market: Yes 1¢ / No 99¢ · liquidity $68,706 · ends 2026-10-01 · market page ↗
Turns on whether 'widespread consensus of credible reporting' without official US announcement is sufficient to trigger Yes resolution.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Allows Yes based on consensus reporting alone, but 'widespread' is undefined—no threshold given for what percentage or number of sources qualifies.

Big money on this market

Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $35,303 · SELL No $7,262. Displayed as evidence of informed interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.

BUY No $9,880 @ 95¢ 2026-07-29 · 0x47551886… · wallet history: $250,644 redeemed / 2 resolutions
BUY No $4,589 @ 94¢ 2026-07-14 · 0x2e0b70d4… · wallet history: $568,169 redeemed / 15 resolutions
BUY No $2,880 @ 96¢ 2026-08-03 · 0x3eae5798… · wallet history: $157,793 redeemed / 27 resolutions
BUY No $2,755 @ 95¢ 2026-07-05 · 0x2e0b70d4… · wallet history: $568,169 redeemed / 15 resolutions
BUY No $2,575 @ 95¢ 2026-07-19 · 0x8b71010f… · wallet history: $161,721 redeemed / 16 resolutions
BUY No $2,350 @ 94¢ 2026-07-28 · 0xdf17f4a8… · wallet history: $11,042 redeemed / 2 resolutions
BUY No $1,920 @ 96¢ 2026-08-01 · 0xcaab1965… · wallet history: $5,079 redeemed / 6 resolutions
SELL No $1,904 @ 95¢ 2026-08-09 · 0x47551886… · wallet history: $250,644 redeemed / 2 resolutions

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by-september-30-145.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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