Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?
market:
Yes 4¢ / No 96¢
· liquidity $15,924 · ends 2026-10-01
·
market page ↗Turns on whether an unofficial statement (CEO tweet, third-party quote) qualifies as an 'official announcement' by Tesla or SpaceX.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering
Resolution rules (verbatim)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
What constitutes 'officially announced' is undefined—no press-release requirement specified. Also, 'typically' more than 50% for controlling interest leaves room for <50% deals with voting control.
Big money on this market
Largest recent trades (≥$400). Flow: BUY No $80,838 · SELL No $37,024 · BUY Yes $3,248 · SELL Yes $2,862. Displayed as evidence of informed
interest — NOT trading signals; by the time size is visible, price has moved.
BUY No
$22,881 @ 76¢
2026-06-29 · 0x47551886… · wallet history: $250,644 redeemed / 2 resolutions BUY No
$17,881 @ 94¢
2026-07-29 · 0x47551886… · wallet history: $250,644 redeemed / 2 resolutions SELL No
$10,155 @ 88¢
2026-07-21 · 0x47551886… · wallet history: $250,644 redeemed / 2 resolutions BUY No
$7,912 @ 75¢
2026-06-29 · 0x47551886… · wallet history: $250,644 redeemed / 2 resolutions BUY No
$6,318 @ 92¢
2026-07-29 · 0x47551886… · wallet history: $250,644 redeemed / 2 resolutions SELL No
$5,907 @ 95¢
2026-08-08 · 0x47551886… · wallet history: $250,644 redeemed / 2 resolutions SELL No
$5,236 @ 90¢
2026-07-14 · 0x47551886… · wallet history: $250,644 redeemed / 2 resolutions BUY No
$3,103 @ 94¢
2026-08-21 · 0xf797d4d1… · wallet history: $4,751 redeemed / 17 resolutions Disputed precedents with similar wording
Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this
market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
resolved NO
DISPUTED · 2026-12-31
Machine-readable
This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/tesla-and-spacex-merger-officially-announced-by-september-30.json.
Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.