unrekt resolver / dossier

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?

market: Yes 64¢ / No 36¢ · liquidity $23,657 · ends 2026-10-01 · market page ↗
Turns on whether an official Saudi announcement that the pipeline 'is presently operating' can be clearly distinguished from announcements of restoration efforts or anticipated future operation.
no published read yet — crux identified, evidence gathering

Resolution rules (verbatim)

On September 11, 2026, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy announced that the East-West oil pipeline has been shut down. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Saudi Arabia announces that the East-West oil pipeline is operational or no longer shut down between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must express that the pipeline is presently operating; operation at partial or reduced capacity qualifies. Announcements that attribute such a claim to third parties, state that the pipeline will or may operate in the future, describe work underway to restore operation, or frame resumption as expected, planned, or conditional, will not qualify. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent contradictory statements, or alternative information from other sources. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia.

Strict exclusion of future tense, conditional language, and restoration descriptions creates potential ambiguity for borderline announcements; timing of announcement recognition also critical.

Disputed precedents with similar wording

Past markets that went through UMA dispute and share wording patterns with this market's crux (keyword match v0 — precedent engine is early).

Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2027-12-31
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Over $2M committed to the Infinex public sale? resolved YES DISPUTED · 2027-01-01
Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale? resolved NO DISPUTED · 2027-01-01

Machine-readable

This dossier updates continuously. JSON: /m/saudi-oil-pipeline-east-west-restarts-by-september-30.json. Oracle precedent matches are rolling out.

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